A web-based pesticide risk assessment tool for drinking water protection zones in Sweden.

To protect human health, wildlife and the aquatic environment, "safe uses" of pesticides are determined at the EU level while product authorization and terms of use are established at the national level. In Sweden, extra precaution is taken to protect drinking water, and permits are therefore required for pesticide use within abstraction zones. This paper presents MACRO-DB, a tool for assessing pesticide contamination risks of groundwater and surface water, used by authorities to support their decision-making for issuing such permits. MACRO-DB is a meta-model based on 583,200 simulations of the physically-based MACRO model used for assessing pesticide leaching risks at EU and national level. MACRO-DB is simple to use and runs on widely available input data. In a qualitative comparative assessment for two counties in Sweden, MACRO-DB outputs were in general agreement with groundwater monitoring data and matched or were more protective than the national risk assessment procedure for groundwater.

Optimizing placement of constructed wetlands at landscape scale in order to reduce phosphorus losses.

Constructed wetlands (CWs) are one of the main countermeasures to reduce diffuse phosphorus (P) losses, but there is still a lack of systematic guidance accounting for spatially variable effects of hydraulic and P load on P retention. We present a three-step modelling approach for determining suitable placement of CWs in four different size groups (0.1-1.0 ha), based on incoming hydraulic and P load. The modelled hypothetical CW area was only 17% of that previously estimated and area of efficient CWs is even lower. The mean area-specific P retention increased with CW size. However, the spatial variation in retention was large for all size groups and largest (6-155 kg ha-1 year-1) for the smallest CWs due to highly variable incoming P loads, showing the possible benefits of targeted placement of CWs. The presented modelling approach has also flexibility to include and account for possible future changes in land cover and management.

From single fields to river basins: Identification of critical source areas for erosion and phosphorus losses at high resolution.

Concentrations of phosphorus (P), the main limiting nutrient in freshwater ecosystems, need to be reduced, but this is difficult due to high spatial and temporal variations and limited resources. Reliable targeting of critical source areas, such as erosion-prone fields and parts of fields, is necessary to improve the cost efficiency of mitigation measures. We used high-resolution (2 m × 2 m) distributed modelling to calculate erosion risk for a large area (202 279 km2) covering > 90% of Swedish arable land. Comparison of model results with independent farmers' observations in a pilot catchment showed high spatial agreement. The modelled worst case scenario produced reasonable quantitative results comparable to measured 90th percentile values of suspended sediment (SS) loads at both field and small catchment scale (R2 = 0.81, p < 0.001). Overall, loads of SS, especially during extreme episodes, strongly governed losses of unreactive P and total P at both field and catchment scale.

Designing cost efficient buffer zone programs: An application of the FyrisSKZ tool in a Swedish catchment.

Riparian buffer zones are the only measure which has been used extensively in Sweden to reduce phosphorus losses from agricultural land. This paper describes how the FyrisSKZ web tool can be used to evaluate allocation scenarios using data from the Svärta River, an agricultural catchment located in central Sweden. Three scenarios are evaluated: a baseline, a uniform 6-m-wide buffer zone in each sub-catchment, and an allocation of areas of buffer zones to sub-catchments based on the average cost of reduction. The total P reduction increases by 30 % in the second scenario compared to the baseline scenario, and the average reduction per hectare increases by 90 % while total costs of the program fall by 32 %. In the third scenario, the average cost per unit of reduction (163 kg P(-1)) is the lowest of the three scenarios (58 % lower than the baseline) and has the lowest total program costs.

Simulated lake phytoplankton composition shifts toward cyanobacteria dominance in a future warmer climate.

The climate is expected to become warmer and wetter in many temperate regions and is expected to affect the water quality in lakes and reservoirs. In this paper, we investigate the impacts of a regional climate scenario on lake productivity using three models in sequence and quantify the response in biomass of three phytoplankton groups. We used a watershed model (GWLF), a physical lake model (PROBE), and a phytoplankton model (PROTBAS) for simulations of a large (61 km2), shallow (mean depth 3.4 m), wind-exposed lake basin with a short water retention time (1 month) at the western end of Lake Mälaren, Sweden. The results suggest that a future scenario with increased warming leads to a longer growing season for phytoplankton, slightly increased levels of total biomass, and a distinct shift in phytoplankton groups to favor nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria at the expense of diatoms in this lake basin. The changes in the timing of nutrient export from the catchment are the primary cause of cyanobacteria dominance over diatoms, and elevated lake temperatures are responsible for the increase in total phytoplankton biomass.